Until the last week of May, the political parties in India were
unaware of the serious dimensions of the Kargil crisis. When it hit the headlines
followed by air strikes, loss of aircraft and men, it was realised that the Kargil
operations will have a major impact on the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. For the
ruling party, it was a test of its ability to handle a major crisis and when it comes to
Kashmir they cannot be seen to be soft. The opposition were in a dilemma- they would
have to be seen to be cooperating with the government to get the intruders out of Kargil
but at the same time reserving their criticism to a later day when the elections are in
full swing.
Every party tried to politicise the Kargil crisis, but at the
same time accused others of doing so,
The Kashmir Issue:
Kashmir has all along been an important agenda of the RSS and its
constituents. Abrogation of article 370 of the Indian constitution which provided special
status to Jammu & Kashmir state remained an important demand of the Sangh
Parivar. Pakistan on the other hand claimed that India had obtained the accession of
Jammu & Kashmir through “fraud and violence.” Article 370 of Indian
constitution also helped Pakistan in its effort to internationalise the issue. By and
large the international opinion on Kashmir has not been favourable to India.
In the backdrop of the war like situation starting from the time
Pakistan sent tribal invaders to Kashmir in October1947, to the two full scale wars in
1965 and 1971, the gap of mistrust continued to widen between the two countries. The
Tashkent agreement in 1965 and the Shimla Pact in 1972 were not taken seriously by
Pakistan.
The problem is that both countries carry a lot of historical
baggage. How else could one explain when Pakistan named its long range missile as
“Ghauri”, a grim reminder to Indians of the victory of Md.Ghauri over the Hindu
Kingdom in his seventeenth attempt? That it was the result of lack of
unity amongst the rulers in India should also be a reminder to the Indians
today.
No political party in India can afford to budge an inch from its position on
Kashmir. Similarly, the Pak army and its political authority maintain that Pakistan
is incomplete without Kashmir. It might be naive to expect that either India or Pakistan
would ever give up their respective claims on any part of Kashmir . Right from the
day of partition both India and Pakistan have entered into number of mutual agreements to
improve their relations but the irony is that none of these agreements has prevented
confrontation between the two countries along the border.
Political fall out of Kargil :
The Lahore declaration (February 21,1999) made some Indians think
that A.B.Vajpayee would create a defining moment in the history of Indo-Pakistan relations
by ushering in a new positive approach for durable peace and goodwill. The Kargil
conflict has proved them wrong. Kashmir is now fast becoming an important poll issue in
the ensuing Lok Sabha election. It looked like a well planned move by Pakistan to create a
war like situation at a time when India is being governed by a care taker government and
parties busy with the Lok Sabha election.
The outcome of the Kargil conflict is expected to have an impact
on the election result and the political parties are therefore very cautious in discussing
this
issue.
The RSS and the BJP:
The RSS and and a section in the BJP who were circumspect about Lahore declaration
got their opportunity to revive the Kashmir issue of their original agenda. This issue was
in fact put in their back burner ever since the BJP led coalition Government at centre had
adopted National Agenda for governance.
H.V.Seshadri, the General Secretary of the RSS mentioned in a
training camp of the RSS in Jammu-“It is our sacred duty to honour their (martyrs of
Kargil)heroic efforts in reclaiming every inch of their motherland encroached upon by the
enemy.” Seshadri Chari, the editor of Organizer, said that “ A
former PM (refers to Mr. Narasimha Rao”) avowed to complete an unfinished task of
gaining Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The present government has to complete the
task.” “Action that has begun in Kargil can end only in
Kashmir.” Govindacharya, the general secretary of BJP and a person known to be
close to Advani (recall his statement of true face and the mask of the BJP) said- we
quote, “ If the situation (Kargil) goes on escalating because of Pakistan not
adhering to LOC in actuality, the present LOC will end up coinciding with the original
border minus Pak held Kashmir.”
The BJP fired the first shot in politicising the issue by
announcing its decision to observe June 23, 1999, the death anniversary of Shyama Prasad
Mukherjee, the founder president of Bhartiya Jan Sangh and the first incarnation of the
BJP as Kashmir Day during which the central leaders of the party will address public
meetings in various parts of the country. The same day blood donation camps are also
being organised.
The party continues to hold that abrogation of Article 370 of the
constitution as the key to a permanent solution to the Kashmir issue and may therefore
make it an issue once again. The BJP leadership might also put pressure on A.B.Vajpayee to
include the abrogation issue in the joint election manifesto of the National Democratic
Alliance headed by the party. The shelling of the area close to the place of landing
in Kargil where the prime minister was to address a public meeting on June 3, 1999
may also be used for projecting Pakistan’s evil designs against the Prime minister
and the party. Flagging off the “Atal Sandesh Yatra” (New Delhi-June
14, 99) of the Bhartiya Janata Yuva Morcha, the youth front of the BJP to mobilise public
opinion in his favour, Vajpayee dispelled the apprehension about postponement of mid-term
Lok Sabha poll and said, “elections will be held on time and the electorates will
give their verdict.”
The BJP is also aware that their stand on Indo-Pak relations
and Kashmir issue should be fine tuned so that they do not get into a confrontation
with the minorities. The decision of the BJP election campaign committee to send
instructions to the state parties to ensure that the campaigning on Kargil issue does not
acquire any “anti minority bias” should be seen in this context.
There is no doubt that Vajpayee is a disappointed man. His
desire to improve Indo-Pak relations was genuine and perhaps thought that the Lahore
declaration could be a new beginning. He wanted to be a statesman rather than a hard
boiled politician. But the Pakistan army had other ideas. His position is similar to
what happened to Pandit Nehru after the Chinese betrayal in 1962. The question
uppermost is whether Vajpayee will survive this crisis? He will survive and may be
the party too, but the equation between him and other members of the party may not be the
same in case the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections is not in favour of BJP.
Opposition:
The opposition parties have blamed the Government for
intelligence failure and for relying too much on the Lahore Declaration. They allege that
the Lahore bus ride was a trap for a soft target like Vajpayee. Since they cannot afford
to take an anti-government stand on Kargil issue they are overtly expressing their
solidarity with the Government. However, keeping in view the coming Lok Sabha
election they do not appear to be in a mood to continue this
cooperation.
The Congress party has already expressed its mind in a statement-
“Indian people should not be given bureaucratic explanation to keep the Lahore spirit
alive.“ Ms. Sonia Gandhi, its president has, in a veiled attack during a party
rally ( Rajmundry- Andhra Pradesh –June 10, 99 ) said that her party “fully
supported the Government for the action taken in evicting the infiltrators but there were
many questions in our mind. Perhaps this is is not the opportune time to ask questions .
We will do so when the last infiltrator has been pushed out”.
I.K.Gujaral (Janata Dal), former Prime Minister in a press
interview (The Times Of India June 13, 99) said, “If at all there is a stage for
setting up a national Government it is now.” He added, “It is the
President`s responsibility since at the moment besides Rajya Sabha, he is the only elected
person. I am sure, he senses the angry public mood at the way things are developing
in Kashmir. To whom is this Government that has resigned, accountable for the war like
situation?”
The CPM leader Jyoti Basu has called for election earlier than
scheduled though after the dissolution of 12th Lok Sabha, the opposition did not support
the demand of the care taker Government for early election.
Sharad Pawar, President of Nationalist Congress Party while
addressing the first rally(Mumbai June 10`99) of this newly formed political party
indirectly attacked Ms. Sonia Gandhi when he exhorted the people “not to waste
sacrifices of freedom fighters and Indian soldiers to evict foreigners by facilitating a
foreigner to become Prime Minister of the country. This blood shed was to evict the
foreigners to quit India, not to facilitate foreign rule in the country.”
Internally, a significant fall out of Kargil conflict is the low
profile taken by all the political leaders- pro India, pro Pakistan and pro secessionist
groups in Kashmir. Militant related incidents in the valley, which had shot up soon
after the dissolution of the Lok Sabha has decreased considerably.
There is no doubt that the Lahore process has been
derailed. But the task of the hour is to clear the intruders. The temptation
to exploit the Kargil crisis to its advantage by every political party is
understandable. Strident statements at this juncture will only benefit extremist
elements on both sides of the border.
R.Upadhyaya
18th June1999.
(The writer is Regional Adviser to the South Asia Analysis
Group)
