After a long gap the Indian polity is again going to face the 13th
Lok Sabha Poll with a "nationally accepted" leadership as the main issue. While
Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru influenced the Indian voters for the Congress Party in the first
three General elections from 1952 to 1962, Indira Gandhi led the party to power in
1967-1972 and 1980. Jai Prakash Narain emerged as an acceptable leader in mid seventies
and the voters brought the Janata Party to power in 1977. Rajiv Gandhi came to power in
1984 on a sympathy wave after the assassination of his mother but the party with its
114-year-old legacy of association with freedom movement lost its national character
during his leadership. Upper castes, Dalits and Muslims who were the vote banks of the
party deserted it since 1986 and Congress lost its power in 1989. V.P.Singh in his effort
to establish himself as a national leader through a message of "social justice’
divided the voters on caste lines. In the absence of a nationally accepted leader , the
country got a fractured mandate giving rise to regional politics in States and coalition
politics at the centre. Ironically the caste leaders whose influence is confined to their
caste men in their respective states are now aspirants to the highest executive post in
the country.
In this backdrop, the voters in the coming poll have an opportunity to choose between
Vajpayee led National Democratic Alliance or Sonia Gandhi led alliance. Actually it is a
kind of a choice between two leaders much like the US presidential elections. None of the
political parties have come with any basic issues facing the country like poverty,
unemployment, health hazards, illiteracy etc. While the BJP led NDA is banking on the post
Kargil image of Vajpayee, the Congress led alliance is depending on the dynastic legacy
and attacks on Vajpayee for mishandling the Kargil conflict and the telephone package
deal. A third group comprising the communists, NCP of Pawar and Samajwadi Party of Mulyam
Singh Yadav and BSP are hoping for a fractured mandate to enable them to form a government
as part of a bargain. The election campaign is thus confined to a debate on the
success or failure of Vajpayee.
The Congress appears to be in a stage of confusion. The party is shaky to openly
project Sonia Gandhi as Prime minister because of her foreign origin. Except for the
emotion linked family legacy she has hardly anything else to offer. During the 1998
election, she failed to recapture the party’s traditional vote bank. The politics of
apology for the operation Blue Star and of Babri masjid, denial of party tickets to
leaders involved in anti Sikh riots of 1984 and special package for the minorities in the
manifesto did not pay dividends. Sonia is now experimenting with three themes- sacrifices
of Nehru-Gandhi family, stability and secularism. Her emotional appeal in UP referring it
as the "karmabhoomi" of her husband did not bring her any seat in the last
elections. In 1999 she has made a similar emotional appeal in her address to the Youth
Congress -"I came to India as daughter-in-law, became mother, then widow and the
greatest daughter of the country breathed her last in my arms."
The spin doctors of Sonia are of the view that her dynastic legacy coupled with
anti-incumbency factor brought the party success in assembly elections of 1998. They
believe that the same anti-incumbency wave could be generated against Vajpayee government
and thus he has been made the exclusive target of the Congress.
On the Kargil issue, the Congress is accusing the BJP of politicising it. Rajesh Pilot,
senior Congress leader (New Delhi- July 26) charged the BJP of spreading
"intellectual terror by calling anyone who opposed its slogan of victory in Kargil as
anti-national." The BJP is politicising the army and the army Generals briefing the
BJP National executive is a "dangerous trend", he said. Kapil Sibal another
Congress spokesman, referring to the tussle between Fernandes-Hegde combine and BJP over
the entry of Janata Dal into NDA, said (New Delhi, August 1), " This is an incoherent
alliance suited only for incoherent governance. Karnataka witnessed it for the past few
years. This time nobody will buy the tickets to see this circus act."
Despite their reservations against individual-based politics, puritans in the Sangh
Parivar have grudgingly compromised and given the green signal to make the post Kargil
image and charisma of Vajpayee as the unique selling point (USP) in the elections.
Vajpayee, a "mask" of the party is now said to be the "real face" of
BJP. Keeping aside its ideological "mascot," the BJP is focussing its attack on
its main rival, the Congress. L.K.Advan blamed the Congress for pulling down four
governments in succession and pushed the country to three elections between 1996 and 1999.
Accusing the Congress of rank irresponsibility and opportunism, he identified three
decisions of the Congress during the thirteen months of Vajpayee’s second tenure in
support of his charge.
1. Condemnation of Pokhran II tests on the plea that the tests would isolate India from
the international community, invite sanctions from the west and thus cripple economy.
Events of the last one year have completely belied the misgivings and India has emerged
with enhanced stature and prestige.
2. The decision of Congress to undo the Central government’s move to protect the
Dalits in Bihar and restore a measure of civilised governance by imposing President’s
rule.
3. Pulling down Vajpayee government without having any alternative to offer and thus
inflicting a costly and totally unnecessary election on the country.
Vajpayee while launching the election campaign in Ludhiana (August 7) and Delhi (August
8) also attacked Congress for forcing midterm polls. He accused Sonia Gandhi of misleading
the President by assuring him that she enjoyed the support of 272 members of Parliament.
The anti-incumbency factor on which the Congress is banking based on the experience in
the assembly elections of 1998, may not be effective this time. Their electoral success
then was partly due to the "onion debacle"and the then image of Vajpayee as a
weak Prime minister. Currently stability in prices, falling inflation rate and sensex
rates have boosted the morale of the BJP and encouraged the Union Finance minister to
declare that "Indian economy would soon achieve a higher growth of 7 percent."
On the loss of 400 soldiers in Kargil conflict, the BJP has compared the immense
casualties suffered in various wars with Pakistan, China and the conflict in Sri Lanka
during the Congress rule.
With the slogan -"compare the thirteen months rule of Vajpayee government against
45 years of misrule of Congress- the choice is yours," and "performance and not
promises" as party’s electoral theme the BJP is going to the voters for their
positive votes and get a decisive mandate.
Though the top leaders of the BJP including Vajpayee have avoided any personal attack
on Sonia Gandhi, the RSS and the VHP appear to be determined to raise the issue of her
foreign origin and also the Bofors. The Sangh Parivar has a plan to create a wave of
patriotic fervour to retain the popular perception that India has achieved diplomatic and
military victory in Kargil. "Rashtra Raksha Yajna" programme of the VHP to
honour the martyrs is a move to turn it into a loud election rally with a call to
"keep the traitors and nonbelievers out of the government as the BJP is the only
bunch of nationalists fit to rule the country."
Unlike the earlier assembly elections, the RSS is totally involved in this election and
has no reservations in dragging constitutional bodies like that of President and Election
Commission into a controversy by questioning their motives. It has accused them of joining
hands with the opposition to create "constitutional confrontation with the Vajpayee
government" on the issue of the new telephone policy of the government. Criticising
the opposition, the President and the Election Commission, Seshadri Chari, Editor of RSS
mouth piece, Organiser, in its issue of August 8, 1999, said "Does not the wild goose
chase suggest that constitutional bodies are misused against the Vajpayee government? The
President K.R.Narayanan has acquired the distinction of being an active President."
He further added "The President has stopped the government from implementing their
revised telecom policy so that the new government to be formed after the elections can
take decision regarding this important financial matter. But in 1998, even while
Shri.Narayanan was occupying the Rashtrapathi Bhavan, the care taker government of Inder
Kumar Gujral was not stopped from putting its seal on the agreement with the World Ttrade
Organisation although it was vitally connected with the country’s economic
prospects."
The alliance partners of the BJP, particularly the Janata Dal (united) have left no one
in doubt that "foreign origin" issue of Sonia Gandhi will be the main thrust of
attack on their main rival. The Nationalist Congress Party’s core election theme is
again the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi. The party though claims to keep equi-distance
both from Congress and the BJP, its electoral theme would benefit the latter.
Vajpayee has now become the common property of NDA. He has risen above the party lines.
In his election rally he has hardly made any personal attack on Sonia Gandhi , but
appealed to the voters to reject the negative politics of Congress and give the NDA a
clear majority to ensure a strong and prosperous country in the next millennium.
Significantly the BJP for the first time has decided not to bring out its separate
election manifesto. Thus, it will not have any scope to be influenced by the ideological
mascot of the BJP. The election campaign has turned out to be one of choosing between
Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi. If the NDA is voted to power, Vajpayee will still have the
tough task of tackling the leaders of the allies on the one hand and the hard core leaders
of Sangh Parivar on the other.
