US-China Relations and the Hainan Incident:reshuffling the cards

South Asia Analysis Group

Paper no. 229

18. 04. 2001

US-China relations and the Hainan incident: reshuffling the cards?

by Rajesh Kumar Mishra

World community has long been speculating inevitable occurrence of Sino-US conflicts in the international security environment. The latest experience in the Hainan incident witnessed the reaffirmation of Chinese hardened bilateral competitive security posture against the United States. And, any further Chinese insistence on the detention and scientific investigation of the surveillance plane may lead to another international crisis.

The crisis over the downing of Chinese F-8 jet and the emergency landing of reconnaissance EP-3E plane in Hainan, was somehow brought under control, but with significant upbeat Chinese anti-American rhetoric. The US, for the safe return of its damaged plane’s crew and return of the plane fitted with sophisticated equipments, underplayed its role as the sole super power in the world. American handling of this situation in going more than half way in meeting Chinese demands has its genesis in US policy-maker’s skewed understanding of the Chinese perception of Sino-US relations. Also, the US policy of ignoring deliberately or otherwise of Chinese articulations on Asia and actions that impinge on the security of other countries in Asia makes many analysts in India wary of Chinese intentions.

In fact, the questionable cold war legacy of the US ambiguities towards Asia deters America to follow a coherent China policy. Particularly, with the latest experience, Americans need to carefully look into the double-edged Chinese ambition—to emerge as a counter-force to the US political might and to translate the increasing military strength into economic gains.

It is remarkable that despite numerous failed pledges of China in past, America still faces the dilemma in defining the relationship with China as one of strategic competitor or a strategic partner. The combination of these two opposite views in Sino-US relation for the sake of global economic co-operation may make the situation more complex and volatile. Notwithstanding the Chinese motives, resuming the Clinton’s policy of constructive engagement with China requires considerable positive reciprocity. Otherwise, the newly acquired international status of China may significantly change the international dynamics of security and development.

Ever since the end of cold war, Sino-US strategic relation has been coping with sharp differences over the issues related to Taiwan, export of nuclear and missile technologies, human rights and national missile development (NMD) programme. Each step taken by the either side reflects its individual superlative national interest. Especially, for any new bilateral agenda formulation, China aspires to be an alternative center of world power structure.

Beijing’s goal of becoming a key world player and especially more powerful in East Asia has come sharply into the focus of American intelligence and the analysts as well. CIA while enumerating prospective threats to the US in its latest report (DCI’s statement, “Worldwide Threat 2001: National Security in a Changing World”, 07February,2001) mentions that China is pursuing its goals through an ambitious economic reform agenda, military modernization, and a complex web of initiatives aimed at expanding China’s international influence- especially relative to the United States. Considering Taiwan as the toughest issue between Beijing and Washington, the report also mentions that China’s military buildup is also aimed at deterring US intervention in support of Taiwan.

In the Adelphi Paper (No.325, March1999) of International Institute for Strategic Studies on Chinese aspirations, it has been mentioned that the tension in the Taiwan straits have created an image of China as a resentful, disruptive nation willing, at times, to be at loggerhead with the international community. This study concludes that Chinese leaders have repeatedly declared that they do not intend their country to be a hegemon, but, while these statements should not necessarily be met with skepticism, they do not fully answer the question.

Also, the Journal of the Royal United Services for Defence Studies (RUSI Journal, Vol.145, No.3, June2000) in one of its papers on “The People’s Liberation Army in 21^st century” explains that it is not difficult to foresee that Beijing’s ambitious military modernization programme and a burgeoning emphasis on nationalism will create unease among smaller peripheral countries, thereby causing instability throughout the region.

Especially, with regard to Chinese nuclear and missile exports, America needs a closer look into media and intelligence reports. In past, many intelligence and media reports alleged China for clandestine illegal transfer of weapons and technologies to its allies. Even, by the end of last year, the unclassified bi-annual report to the Congress on the acquisition of technology relating to weapons of mass destruction and advanced conventional munitions (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian_feb_2001.htm) clearly stated that the Chinese have continued to take a very narrow interpretation of their bilateral nonproliferation commitments with the United States. And, explicitly, it remarked that “the Chinese missile related technical assistance to Pakistan continued to be substantial” in nature. Still, US did not take any effective measure in this direction.

Generally, American strength in foreign policy is reflected through its credibility to lead by example. Despite having commendable military and economic strength, till now, Washington has been inadequately addressing the potential Chinese threats at both the regional and international levels. But, with the change of guard in Washington with not so good experience with China at the very outset, the US may look forward to significant reorientation in its defence and foreign policies, especially, with regard to the Sino-US relations.

In fact, Chinese international behaviour has long been full of mystery and fear. As far as Sino-US relation is concerned, while advocating for multi-polar world order, China wishes to become a potential alternative pole in any international system, if not equal at least at par with the US political might. To pursue this objective, unmindful of glaring limitations to its technological advancements and economy, Beijing finds enough space in confronting interests with Washington on the basis of a strong nuclear deterrence. At every instance, China takes the fullest advantage of an opportunity to stand against the United States.

In an interview with the managing editor of Washington Post in last week of March, News from China (Vol.XIII, No.14, April,4,2001) quoted President Jiang Zemin saying on the issue of Taiwan that “we stated long ago that we would not renounce the use of force. But this is by no means targeted at our compatriots in Taiwan. Rather, it is directed against any foreign attempt against the reunification of China and directed against Taiwan independence.” He noted saying that, over the years, the US has never ceased selling sophisticated weapons to Taiwan, and, that this in effect abetted the separatist activities for Taiwan independence.

Toward the efforts in covering up its own nuclear and missile related activities, China counter-blames the US for the development of theatre missile defence (TMD) plan with its allies like Japan covering Taiwan. Beijing eagerly was waiting for the US to promise not to build the TMD with Taiwan. Chinese are also vehemently opposed to the ambitious American national missile defence (NMD) programme. They think that these American defence programmes will aggrandise the crisis of nuclear proliferation and trigger off a new kind of arms race in outer space.

In the backdrop of such mutual distrust and misperceptions, US-China relation is to continue with pertinent complexities. Volatility on key sensitive issues is to remain unchanged in the near future. If China persists on the continuing policies of confrontation against the United States, it may further impinge the US national interests. Really, the Sino-US relation is at the Crossroads.

Back to the top

Copyright © South Asia Analysis Group
All rights reserved. Permission is given to refer this on-line document for use in research papers and articles, provided the source and the author's name are acknowledged. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes.