ZHU RONGJI'S VISIT TO PAKISTAN
by B.Raman
"Regionally, China will continue to support
Pakistan, but much depends upon how Pakistan itself manages to come out of
its current problems. The old intimacy and warmth, which once were a
hallmark of Sino-Pakistan friendship, is a part of history. I doubt if the
Chinese Premier will today visit the Pakistan Ambassador's residence for
lunch or dinner and stay for hours, as Zhou Enlai did, or spend ten hours
over two days talking to Pakistan's Foreign Secretary about the situation
in East Pakistan as Zhou Enlai did in 1971. China has some valid grounds
for being wary concerning our policy in Afghanistan and Kashmir. It is up
to us to remove these obstacles."
* ---Sultan Mohammad Khan, former Foreign Secretary of
Pakistan who had served as Ambassador to Beijing, writing in the
"Dawn" last year.
"China is the only major power that shares our
concerns regarding India's regional ambitions. China adopted a principled
position on the South Asian nuclear tests expressing grave concern over
India's tests, and understanding for Pakistan's in the circumstances.
Pakistan is fully supportive of China's advocacy of a multi-polar world.
We share China's belief in the need for a just and equitable international
economic order and reform of the international financial system."
--- From a review of Pakistan"s foreign policy for
1999-2000, issued by the Pakistan Foreign Office
last year.
Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the self-styled Chief Executive of
Pakistan, has reasons to be gratified by the five-day visit to Pakistan
from May 11 by the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr.Zhu Rongji, to mark the 50th
anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two
countries.
First, Mr.Zhu accorded in public an unqualified
endorsement of the military regime and praise for its track record so far
in providing political stability to Pakistan and in launching the
much-needed economic reforms. No other country, not even the authoritarian
Islamic countries of the Gulf and West Asia, have so far accepted the
legitimacy of the military ruler in such clear terms as Mr.Zhu did during
his statements in Pakistan.
Second, he recalled in nostalgic terms the close
political, economic and military ties between the two countries and the
way they had stood by each other in the best of times and in the worst of
times and reiterated China's determination to sustain and nurse this
relationship.
Mr.Zhu said that the Chinese Government was ready to
further strengthen all-round co-operation with Pakistan and instil new
"vigour and vitality" in the friendly relations between the two
countries. He added that China and Pakistan should continue to step up
their co-operation and safeguard the solidarity and interests of the
developing countries in a common endeavour to promote the establishment of
a just and rational new international political and economic order.
He said that China and Pakistan had shown mutual
understanding and support on many major international issues and that
Pakistan had always spoken up for China at international forums, firmly
supporting China's efforts to safeguard national unity and territorial
integrity and upholding justice and dignity in the cause of international
human rights.
He described South Asia as an important component not
only of Asia, but also of the whole world and added that peace and
development in the South Asian region were vitally linked with the
stability and prosperity of Asia and the world at large. As a close
neighbour of South Asia, China cared about the situation in the region.
He
hoped that South Asia would be able to maintain peace and stability and
that countries in the subcontinent could live together in peace and
emphasised that China was ready to work together with all countries in
South Asia, including Pakistan.
Addressing a joint Press conference along with
Gen. Musharraf on May 11, Mr. Zhu described Kashmir "a leftover of
history," and added: "China supports and agrees with Pakistan's
position for a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir issue." To a
question on Chinese assistance to Pakistan's defence capability, he said
that there was co-operation in all areas, but added that the defence of
Pakistan was its internal matter.
Gen.Musharraf interjected: "We are very proud of the
Chinese help and we are grateful. But there should not be any doubt in
anyone's mind that no amount of increase in India's defence budget can
deter us from maintaining our deterrence."
On Beijing's policy on supply of defence equipment and
technology to Pakistan, Mr.Zhu said both the countries co-operated in a
number of sectors including defence, but it was in line with international
agreements.
He described the friendship between the two countries as
exemplary and said:"They trust each other, understand each other and
can mutually accommodate each other's positions. Whatever changes occur in
the world, friendly relations between the two countries are strong and
unbreakable."
Third, as a mark of the continued Chinese commitment to
the progress and well-being of Pakistan and its people, he announced
Chinese assistance, definitively or in principle, to the following
economic development projects for which Mr.Shaukat Aziz, Pakistan's
Finance Minister, had sought Chinese assistance during his visit to
Beijing in June last to attend the meeting of the Pakistan-China Joint
Economic Commission (JEC).
* A US $ 200 million supplier's credit for the
modernization of Pakistan Railways. China would supply to Pakistan
Railways 69 locomotives and 175 passenger coaches, of which 40 coaches
and 15 locomotives would be built in China, and the remaining would be
built in Pakistan
* The ZTE company of China would give a supplier's
credit of US $ 100 million to the Pakistan Telecommunication Company
Limited (PTCL) for the manufacture and installation of digitally
switched lines .
* Another credit of US $ 120 million by the China
Petroleum Engineering Construction Corporation (CPECC), in the form
equipment and materials, for the construction of a pipeline to transfer
petroleum products from Karachi to Pakistani Punjab.
* A pledge of US $ 240 million for the development of
the Gwadar port in Balochistan and another of US $ 200 million for the
construction of a coastal highway linking Karachi and Gwadar. The
"News" quoted Pakistani official sources as saying that China
was seeking "sovereign guarantees" from Pakistan before
finalising its commitment to assist in the construction of the Gwadar
port.
* An investment of US $ 40 million for the development
of the Saindak copper-gold mine project in Balochistan, which would be
given on lease to the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC), for US $
500,000 per month for 10 years, with the produce being equally shared by
the Chinese Corporation and Pakistan.
* Another investment of US $ 200 million by a Chinese
company in the Mobilink cellular company.
* A technical assistance package of US $ 6 million.
China has also agreed to invest in farming and to help
in the development of coal-mines. Chinese experts would soon visit
Pakistan to undertake a survey of coal deposits in Sindh. Mr.Aziz
discounted the possibility of any problems arising as a result of the
proposed Chinese presence in the Gwadar port project and the presence of
US oil companies in the same area.
Mr. Aziz added that Oman's Sultan Qaboos had offered US
$ 7 million for developing Gwadar city and that on the directive of
Gen.Musharraf a special unit, headed by an Additional Secretary, was being
set up in the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) to co-ordinate efforts for
strengthening Pakistan-China trade relations.
All the pledges were definitive except those for the
Gwadar port, the Karachi-Gwadar coastal highway and the pipeline for which
feasibility studies would first be made before the finalisation of the
Chinese assistance. Pakistan attaches great importance to the Gwadar port
and the coastal highway project, which have been pending for decades, for
the following reasons:
* The need to dilute the dependence on the Karachi port,
which now handles over 80 per cent of Pakistan's international trade.
For this purpose, successive Pakistani Governments had drawn up plans
for the development Port Bin Qasim in Sindh and Gwadar in Balochistan as
alternate ports, but have been unable to implement them for want of
interested foreign parties, which are deterred by the bad law and order
situation in Sindh and Balochistan and by the hostility of the Sindhi
and Balochi nationalist elements to these projects unless they were
given guarantees that priority would be given to the employment of
Sindhis and Balochis in these projects and that the major share of the
benefit of these projects would go to these provinces and not to Punjab.
During Mrs. Benazir Bhutto's tenure, a Hong Kong company had offered to
construct the Bin Qasim port, but implementation has been delayed.
There
has so far been no foreign interest in Gwadar.
* The need for an alternate outlet for external trade
if Karachi is blockaded by the Indian Navy in the event of a war.
* To provide an outlet for the trade of the Central
Asian Republics (CARs).
The Saindak project has been lying idle since 1995 due
to the bad law and order situation in Balochistan, the hostility of the
Balochi nationalists and shortage of working capital. In 1998, the Nawaz
Sharif Government started negotiations with a consortium of Western banks
for a credit to re-start the project, but the banks withdrew from the
negotiations after the Chagai nuclear tests.
The Chinese are reported to have demanded guarantees
from the Musharraf Government regarding an improvement in the law and
order situation in Balochistan before they could start work on these
projects. Even in the past, there had been attacks on Chinese experts
working in other projects in Balochistan and, just before Mr.Zhu's visit,
one person was killed and three others, including a Chinese engineer, were
injured seriously when the survey team of a Chinese company was attacked
in the Sunny area of Sibi district, 160 km northeast of Quetta in
Balochistan, on May 7. Suspected militants of the Balochistan National
Liberation Front (BNLF) fired rockets at the vehicle of the survey team,
reportedly as a warning to the Chinese not to help the Musharraf regime
until the demands of the Balochis were met.
BNLF cadres again struck after Mr.Zhu's departure when
major parts of Balochistan, including Quetta, went without natural gas for
more than 24 hours on May 19 following a blast in the main Sui Southern
Gas pipeline the previous night.
Concerned over the increasing activities of the Balochi
nationalists and pressed by the Chinese for an improvement of the law and
order situation, the military regime established contact with the
traditional Balochi leaders before Mr.Zhu's visit and sought their
co-operation in improving the situation in Balochistan.
Sardar Akhtar Mengal, former Chief Minister of
Balochistan, confirmed on May 12 that the Balochistan Minister, Agha Abdul
Qadir, had approached his father, Sardar Ataullah Khan Mengal, in London
and sought the co-operation of the Balochis for the exploitation of the
mineral wealth of Balochistan and that Sardar Ataullah had set certain
conditions for co-operation. The conditions included the immediate release
of Nawab Khair Bukhsh Marri, the Balochi nationalist leader,immediate
issue of an ordinance for the transfer of oil, gas and natural resources,
including metallic and non-metallic minerals, portfolio from the federal
Government to Balochistan and other provinces, allocation of substantial
percentage from the income generated from oil, gas and other minerals for
the development of the areas where these resources were found and priority
to the local people in the recruitment of personnel to work in these
projects.
Pakistan has reasons to be disappointed by the
following:
* Mr.Zhu stuck to the post-1996 policy of the Chinese
leadership of not doing or saying anything which could be interpreted as
taking sides on the bilateral issues between India and Pakistan.
* Despite persistent questioning by the Pakistani
media, he avoided any criticism of India on any issue, even on India's
stand on the National Missile Defence Initiative (NMD) of the Bush
Administration.
* China was non-committal on Pakistan's request for
assistance in respect of the following projects:
1. The expansion of the Soviet-aided steel mill at
Karachi. Russia has refused to help Pakistan in this matter because of
its unhappiness over the involvement of Pakistani jehadis in Chechnya
and Dagestan. During their visits to China last year, both
Gen.Musharraf and Mr.Aziz had requested for Chinese assistance, but
Beijing apparently does not want to annoy Moscow by helping Pakistan
in this matter.
2. Upgradation of the trans-border trade along
the Chinese-aided Karakoram Highway. Whereas the bilateral trade
between Pakistan and China is conducted on the basis of a trade
agreement signed between the two governments on January 5, 1963,
border trade between Pakistan-occupied Northern Areas of Kashmir (Gilgit
and Baltistan) and China's Xinjiang province through the Karakoram
Highway is conducted since 1993 on the basis of an exchange of letters
on an annual basis, with specific items and ceilings for trade. The
annual ceiling since then has been two-way trade worth US $ 3 million
, but the actual trade has never exceeded US $ one million. The
Northern Area Cooperative Bank Ltd., Gilgit, is the agency through
which border trade with Xinjiang is transacted. Due to the involvement
of Pakistani jehadi organisations in assisting the Islamic terrorists
in Xinjiang, Beijing has not been keen to expand this trade and has
avoided implementing an agreement entered into during the tenure of
Mrs.Benazir Bhutto for the upgradation of the Karakoram Highway.
Addressing the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) on May 12,Mr. Zhu said:
* China would extend support for the construction of the
Gwadar port, the development of coastal highway projects and other
projects in the communication sector. He would soon send the Chinese
Minister for Communication to Pakistan to hold talks with the Pakistani
authorities so that the level of Chinese financial and technical support
could be assessed for these projects. "We will soon discuss and
finalize ways and means to support your important communication
projects."
* Asked why the two countries could not benefit from
the construction of the Karakoram highway, Mr. Zhu said there was a need
to expand transportation capacity. There was no problem in conducting
trade through land route, but" we both have to look into increasing
our transportation capacity to have more trade."
In two respects, Mr.Zhu's visit, details of which were
finalised last year, came at an inconvenient time for the military regime.
First, Mr.Abdul Sattar, Pakistan's Foreign Minister, is due to visit
Washington next month for talks with Gen.Colin Powell, US Secretary of
State, and Islamabad is hoping that Mr.Sattar's talks in Washington would
lead to a review of the USA's hitherto unhelpful attitude towards
Pakistan. Second, the stand-by credit given by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) in November last is due to expire in September and a fresh
credit has to be negotiated, for which US support would be necessary.
At such a delicate moment, too effusive a support for
Beijing on issues such as the NMD could prove counter-productive for
Pakistan vis-à-vis the US. At a function on May 12, a Chinese journalist
referred to what he called India's support to the USA's NMD initiative and
asked for the comments of Gen.Musharraf. He replied:"We are against
any action that re-initiates nuclear and missile race."
Worried over a possible misinterpretation of his remarks
by Washington, Mr. Sattar told the media after the departure of Mr.Zhu:
Pakistan had a principled stand on the NMD issue which should not affect
its relations with the US. The Chief Executive had expressed Pakistan's
concern over the new ballistic missile programme of the US."... this
is our well-known and traditional stand that strategic stability should
prevail in the world." Many countries had expressed the same view in
the UN. The NMD violated the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty that was
signed with the former Soviet Union. He did not believe that an era of
cold war had returned in which the US and China were now becoming two
major camps. Asked whether Pakistan was moving away from the West after
the visit of the Chinese Premier, he said that Mr. Zhu's visit should not
be seen in any global background. The visit of the Chinese Premier should
not affect Pakistan's relations with the World Bank and the IMF. The visit
would not have any impact on Pakistan's plan to seek new funding from the
IMF, he asserted.
Briefing the media at Islamabad on the outcome of the
visit on the night of May 12, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign
Ministry said:
* "Our relationship with Pakistan is a very good
relationship. It is an all-weather friendship. China wants to develop
good relations with every country. India is a close neighbour and we
want to further develop our ties with it."
* The focus of the Chinese Premier's visit to Pakistan
was economic, but defence co-operation was an important element of
China's ties with Pakistan and it wanted to further its ties with
Pakistan in all fields. Referring to the Indian military exercises, she
said China had noted the development. "We hope that whatever the
country (India) is doing is good for peace and stability."
* China was a developing country and even if it
developed more, it would not be a super or hegemonic power. "We are
a peace-loving country. We are not interested in having spheres of
influence. We want our people to live well."
* China's position on Kashmir had been consistent that
all the parties should resolve it through peaceful means. "China
can attempt to persuade all the parties to safeguard peace and stability
in the region."
* India's bid to become a member of the UN Security
Council was still under consideration and was being debated.
* Afghanistan was discussed between the Chinese
Premier and Gen Musharraf. "The Chief Executive explained his
country's position and policies on Afghanistan. Our position is that the
issue should be resolved through dialogue."
* The Shanghai-5 group was still at a very early
stage. "But regardless of whether Pakistan is its member or not, it
has an important role to play on the issues concerning the group."
* During the discussions, the US plan to build a
National Missile Defence system also came up. "Pakistan raised this
issue and talked about its position. The Chinese Premier listened.
"Although the US was sending delegations all over the world to
explain its position, it was obvious that there are more questions than
answers."
* On the Gwadar Port project and the Makran coastline
project, China had in principle agreed to support the projects. "But feasibility studies have to be done."
There was no reference during the visit to the
following:
* Super 7/FC-1 project: The plan of the two countries for
the joint production of the Super 7/FC-1 fighter aircraft has not got
going so far because of Russian reluctance to sell its engines for use
in the aircraft because of its unhappiness over the support of Pakistani
mercenaries for the terrorists of Chechnya and Dagestan and the failure
of companies in Italy, France and the UK to secure the approval of their
Governments to supply the avionics because of the overthrow of democracy
in Pakistan.
* Pakistan's request for Chinese assistance for the
construction of a second nuclear power station at Chashma (CHASNUPP II)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com
)
