South Asia Analysis Group 


Paper no.254

11. 06. 2001

  

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MUSHARRAF: operation whitewash?  

by B.Raman

The strong criticism of the activities of Islamic extremist groups by Gen.Pervez Musharraf, the self-styled Chief Executive of Pakistan, while addressing the  annual Seerat Conference in Islamabad on the Holy Prophet's birthday on June 5 has been interpreted by many in India as made largely with reference to India and, hence, welcomed as a positive indicator of his likely attitude during his forthcoming visit to New Delhi for talks with the Indian Prime Minister, Mr.A.B.Vajpayee.

However, a careful reading of his address would indicate that it was made against a much larger background such as the decline in educational standards in Pakistan due to the influence of the religious organisations on the educational system, the consequent difficulties faced by the economy in modernising itself for want of the required human resources, the worsening of the Shia-Sunni violence in different parts of the country, the consequent deterioration in the law and order situation and its negative impact on the flow of foreign investments, the impact of the activities of the extremist organisations on Pakistan's relations with other countries and the resulting negative image of Pakistan as a failed state and as a state-sponsor of terrorism.

His reference to the Indian context was in passing and related to the concern caused in the minds of Indian Muslims by such extremist activities of Pakistani religious organisations and their anti-India rhetoric.  He has taken great care to avoid any misinterpretation that the rebuke administered by him related to the activities of the jehadi organisations in Jammu & Kashmir (J & K).

His rebuke, so far as their activities against India are concerned, relates mainly to their propaganda that J & K is the gateway to India and that the objective of their jehad is not just the merger of J & K with Pakistan, but also the "liberation" of the Muslims living in other parts of India.  What he has, in effect, deplored is their claim that their final objective is the re-establishment of Muslim rule in those parts of India, which were under the Moghul rule, and the hoisting of the Moghul flag in the Red Fort in New Delhi.  While criticising the misuse of money collected ostensibly for the jehad in J & K, he emphasised that he was committed to the so-called Kashmir cause and would advance it in whatever way he could.

As Mr.Ayaz Amir, the well-known columnist of the "Dawn" of Karachi, has remarked: "Mr Vajpayee has already welcomed it, a circumstance which almost ensures that it will be read in the context of India-Pakistan relations whereas to isolate it thus is to give it a wrong meaning."

The rebuke was preceded by the visit to Pakistan by some eminent Deobandi leaders from India to attend a Deobandi conference in Peshawar in April and by the Imam of the Jumma Masjid in New Delhi to meet the leaders of the traditional Islamic parties of Pakistan such as the Jammat-e-Islami (JEI).  While it is not known whether the Indian Deobandi leaders met the General, the Imam had called on him.  During their discussions in Pakistan, these Indian Muslim leaders reportedly conveyed to their Pakistani interlocutors their concern over the likely negative impact of the anti-India rhetoric of the Pakistani fundamentalist organisations on the welfare of the Indian Muslim community.

During their stay in Pakistan, these leaders took care not to associate themselves with any controversial statements relating to either J & K or the condition of the Muslims in India.  Their stance has definitely had an impact on the mind of the General and underlines the need for greater interactions between the mainstream religious leaders of the two countries.  At the same time, it would be unwise to interpret the General's rebuke as a precursor of a likely reining in of the jehadis in J & K by him.

The General's rebuke came on the eve of four important developments, which could have an adverse impact on his relations with the Mullahs:

* First, the budget for fiscal 2001-02 to be released end-June.  The previous budget of June 2000 covered the last months of the Nawaz Sharif Administration and the first months of the military rule.  The forthcoming budget, which would be the first one exclusively relating to the military rule, is expected to show (unless the budget is fudged by the General in a big way) a deterioration in the economic situation since the Army took over, with the GDP growth rate declining to below 4 per cent, an increase in the trade deficit, a failure to meet the targets laid down by the IMF as a condition for its rescue package of November 2000, a decrease in the spending on the social and economic development of the underprivileged sections of the population and a dramatic decline of 74 per cent in foreign investments.  If the correct figures are released by the General, these would damage his credibility and his claim that only his continued rule could put the economy on the recovery path.

* Second, the impending expiry on June 30 of the deadline fixed by the Shariat Court for the Islamisation of the economy, without any progress made so far.  Some banks of Pakistan, at the instance of the General, have already requested the court for an extension of this deadline.

* Third, the impending expiry on September 30 of the duration of the stand-by credit of the IMF and of the re-scheduling of the overdue external debts by foreign creditor banks.  Unless a fresh stand-by credit is given by the IMF and the banks agree to a further rescheduling, there is danger of Pakistan defaulting in its external financial obligations.  While the IMF and the banks are unlikely to let this happen, the IMF is likely to further tighten up its conditionalities, triggering off a fresh round of protests by the fundamentalist organisations, which have been calling for the Islamisation of the economy and the rejection of the IMF conditionalities.

* Four, the visit to Washington from June 18 to 20 by Mr. Abdul Sattar, the Foreign Minister, for talks with the members of the Bush Administration, when in addition to nuclear non-proliferation issues and the restoration of democracy, the failure of the military regime to moderate the activities of the jehadi organisations and the Taliban and the violation of the human rights of the religious minorities in Pakistan are expected to come up.  Another subject of concern to the Bush Administration is likely to be the association of the Chinese with the development of the Gwadar port on the Mekran coast in Balochistan and the reported offer by the military regime of naval base facilities to the Chinese fleet at Gwadar, which could pose a direct threat to US interests in the Gulf.

The Chinese have been going ahead in full steam with the development of the Gwadar port.  Within a month of the agreement in principle on this subject being signed in Islamabad during the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr.Zhu Rongji, last month, a high-power Chinese delegation led by the Chinese Communications Minister is already in Balochistan to start the groundwork.

This project was drawn up in 1992 and it was proposed to be implemented by the Benazir and Nawaz Sharif regimes with the assistance of Omani and US companies. Following difficulties in implementation due to the post-Chagai economic sanctions, the military regime has awarded the contract to Beijing, which would be funding the project, reportedly in return for the grant of base facilities.

In view of the vulnerability of Karachi to Indian naval blockade in the event of a war, the military regime has already inaugurated a new naval base at Ormara and Gwadar, when completed, would add to the naval infrastructure in Balochistan.  Keeping in view the location of a number of sensitive Chinese-aided projects, with military implications, in Balochistan, the military regime has already started harassing the members of the Hindu community in Balochistan, in order to force them to leave the province.  There have been reports of the local authorities and clerics not allowing Hindu girls to marry unless they embrace Islam and choose a Pakistani Muslim as their husband. There have also been reports of the forcible marriage of Hindu girls to Muslim boys.

There has been an alarming increase in attacks on Ahmadiyas and on the Hindus of Balochistan since Gen.Musharraf seized power.  The "Friday Times", the highly-respected weekly of Pakistan, reported in its issue of March 23-29, 2001, as follows:

* Persecution of the Ahmediyas seemed to be on the rise across the country last year with about 2000 incidents.  The incidents included the murder of four Ahmediyas, forcible seizure of their places of worship, bodies of Ahmediyas buried in graveyards being disinterred and fatwas issued against the Ahmediyas by Sunni Mullahs.  While the military regime has not been permitting the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) to hold rallies for democracy, it did not stop a public function in a Multan mosque by Sunni extremists to award the title of the "Conqueror of Ahmediyas' to Maulana Manzoor Ahmed Chinioti, a Sunni extremist, who has been in the forefront of the campaign for the extermination of the Ahmediyas.

* "Hundreds of Hindus have been forced to flee their homes and cross over into Sindh.  Three Hindus were reported to have been killed in the town of Chaman after clashes between Hindus attempting to protect their homes and Muslim mobs in October.  Temples and homes were set ablaze and property, including Hindu shops, destroyed as the growing social intolerance assumed alarming new proportions in Balochistan.  In all cases, local extremist groups played a role in triggering the attacks.

* "Though the precise number of families which fled was unknown, reports suggested almost half the community of 10,000 Hindus in Lasbela had been forced to leave their homes over the year.  In almost all cases, the increased activism by militant religious groups imposed new strains on relations between the majority Muslim and the Hindu communities, who had lived peacefully alongside each other for many decades.

* "The efforts to forcibly convert the Hindus, especially female school students, had a direct role to play in violence against Hindu settlements.

* "At least five Hindu temples were vandalised over the year, with their structures damaged and the idols and other objects of worship broken. Amidst the uproar caused by the conversion issue in Lasbela, activists of religious parties launched an assault on two old Hindu temples and threw to the ground the idols placed in them."

While the rest of the world has condemned the destruction of the Buddha statues by the Taliban in Afghanistan and its orders to the Hindus to wear a yellow piece of cloth as a mark of identification, neither the rest of the world nor the Track II personalities in India, including the members of the high-profile Belusa group of Mrs.Shirin Tahir Kheli who have been in the forefront of the "Love Musharraf" campaign, have even taken notice of, not to talk of condemning, the persecution of the Hindus of Balochistan since the military regime came to power.

At least, one official of the Bush Administration has taken note of the shocking atrocities on the religious minorities under the military regime.  In a letter to Gen.Colin Powell, Secretary of State, Mr.Elliot Abrams, Chairman of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom, has urged him to press Mr Sattar during the latter's visit "to make serious and sustained efforts to promote and protect the religious freedom of all citizens of Pakistan".  He has said that the Sattar visit "provides an occasion for a serious discussion on religious freedom, tolerance and sectarian violence in Pakistan". 

The recent admonition of Gen.Musharraf to the Mullahs should be viewed in the proper perspective as a purely tactical move against this background and India should not unwittingly fall a prey to attempts to re-package him as a man of peace and goodwill until his sincerity in wanting to control the rogue Mullahs is proved through concrete actions on the ground and he reins in the hordes of the irrational Pakistani jehadis let loose by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in J & K and other parts of India. 

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com)

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