THE FIRST WORLD WAR AGAINST TERRORISM
by B.Raman
The US authorities seem to be increasingly focussing ,
inter alia, on the likely involvement of bin Laden's set-up in the
terrorist incidents in the US on September 11, which President George Bush
has described as the beginning of the first war of the new millennium.
President Bush has also expressed the USA's
determination to fight this war till victory is won and the NATO countries
and Russia have expressed their solidarity with the US in this
matter. The support of India too, the greatest victim of Pakistan
and Afghanistan based international Islamic terrorism, would be natural.
As part of the USA's counter-offensive to make the world
safe from international Islamic terrorism, Mr.Bush has through Gen. (retd)
Colin Powell, his Secretary of State, and Mrs. Wendy Chamberlin, the US
Ambassador in Islamabad, sought Pakistan's co-operation. Musharraf
has given a public assurance of his "unstinted co-operation"
against international terrorism. Mr.Bush told the media on September
13 that the US "has given Pakistan a chance to co-operate",
thereby indicating some skepticism in his mind whether the military junta
would and, if so, to what extent.
On the basis of present evidence, unless there has been
a miraculous change in Musharraf's real attitude, his co-operation would,
most probably, be more proforma than real, for the following reasons:
* The strong bonds of personal and professional links
between Musharraf and Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the clandestine Chief of
Staff of Pakistan's Army of Islam, on the one side and bin Laden on the
other. These bonds date from the Afghan war of the 1980s.
The Army of Islam consists of bin Laden's Al Qaeda, the
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad
(JEM) and the Al Badr.
* The equally strong bonds of these officers with the
Taliban, which was created during Mrs.Benazir Bhutto's second
tenure. These two officers, who were then posted as
Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO), and Deputy
Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) respectively,
created the Taliban at the instance of Maj-Gen. (retd) Nasirullah Baber,
her Interior Minister, who was himself the head of the Afghan Division
of the ISI under her father.
* The way the two frustrated the efforts of Nawaz
Sharif, after his return from Washington in July,1999, to co-operate
with the US on the bin Laden issue.
* The fears entertained by them and by fundamentalist
sections of the Army and Islamic organisations in Pakistan that the end
of bin Laden's set-up and the Taliban could mark the beginning of the
end of the so-called jehad in Jammu & Kashmir.
* Fears of an Islamic fundamentalist backlash against
him if he is perceived as co-operating with the US against the Taliban
and bin Laden.
* Ever since his appointment as the COAS in October,
1998, Musharraf has been proclaiming himself as strongly against
international terrorism, but he has repeatedly excluded from this the
terrorist activities of the so-called jehadis in J & K, the Taliban
and bin Laden's set-up. He has never condemned or even criticised,
however mildly, the terrorist activities of the Taliban and bin Laden's
set-up by name.
If the US and other NATO powers really want their
counter-offensive to triumph, they have to work for the replacement from
power in Islamabad of Musharraf, Lt.Gen.Muzaffar Usmani, his Deputy Chief
of the Army Staff, Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, presently a Corps Commander at
Lahore, and, possibly, Lt.Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, the ISI Director-General, by
moderate officers, who would be genuinely responsive to the concerns of
the world community and sincere in their commitment to co-operate in the
fight against international Islamic terrorism. For this purpose, the
US has to identify officers with no past links with bin Laden and the
Taliban. India might be able to help it in this regard.
Unless this is done, Musharraf and his coterie, while
seemingly co-operating with the US and the rest of the world community,
would covertly work against their counter-offensive. So long as this
coterie continues in power, the chances of a definitive success of the
counter-offensive would be doubtful.
In this connection, it is necessary to recall what the
"Nation" (January 8, 1999) reported quoting Western (apparently
US) diplomatic sources in Islamabad : " The world continues to
believe that Pakistan is backing the Taliban hook, line and sinker and
some of its institutions have also links with Osama. The support
continues through linkages established over the years. We believe
that this support is much more than moral and diplomatic. It is also
material and financial.
"While we believe the Nawaz Government's assurances
that it has nothing to do with Osama, we suspect that part of the
Pakistani establishment is involved with the man. The Prime Minister
and his confidants have done much to clear suspicions that they are
backing Osama. Many responsible Federal Ministers have assured us in
private that Pakistan will never be a party to his activities and that it
condemns terrorism.
"But, at the same time, they also tell us that
there are wheels within wheels which they cannot stop and which continue
to have truck with Osama besides rendering valuable material support to
the Taliban.
"There is a vast network in your (Pakistani)
intelligence community which does not listen to any Government and which
operates on its own. It is definitely happening in the case of the
Taliban and Osama as well. We know it."
This position continues to be as valid today as it was
in January, 1999. Musharraf and his coterie constituted this wheel
within wheels under Nawaz Sharif and continue to maintain their networking
with the Taliban and bin Laden.
Amongst other first steps the US should take are:
* Demand that the junta immediately bans the
Pakistan-based HUM, which is a member of bin Laden's International
Islamic Front For Jehad Against the US and Israel and which was declared
by the US as a terrorist organisation in October,1997, arrests its
leaders and winds up its training camps. The Nawaz Sharif as well
as the Musharraf regimes have avoided action against the HUM.
* Identify the officers in the Army and the ISI, who
are mixed up with the Taliban and bin Laden's set-up, and demand their
removal as the first Clinton Administration had demanded the removal of
Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir, then DG,ISI, and many of its officers, who were
sympathetic to the Arab terrorists in Afghanistan and frustrated US
efforts to buy back the Stingers.
* Demand the arrest and expulsion to their country of
origin of the remnants of the Arab mercenaries of the Afghan War, who
are still present in Pakistan, even if they had been given Pakistani
nationality.
* Demand the immediate posting of a much stronger team
of UN monitors, than originally envisaged, near the Pakistan-Afghanistan
border to prevent Pakistani violations of the UN sanctions.
* Stop all bilateral and multilateral credits and
other assistance to Pakistan till it shows signs of sincerity in
co-operating with the world community.
The international Islamic terrorist syndicate's brain
trust advising bin Laden in Afghanistan are:
* Sheikh Taseer Abdullah, who is also known as Abu Hafs
al-Misri. He could be the same person whom the FBI describes as
Mohammed Atef, the military commander of bin Laden. Washington has
charged Atef with involvement in the Kenya and Tanzania bombings and
announced a reward of US $ 5 million for his capture. Sheikh
Taseer was constantly at bin Laden's side ---whether it was in Peshawar
and Afghanistan in the 1980s, in the Sudan subsequently and again in
Afghanistan after bin Laden's return from Sudan in May, 1996.
Sheikh Taseer, who dresses in the Afghan salwar-kameez like bin Laden
and is bearded and turbaned, is a former Egyptian police officer.
He came to Peshawar in 1983 and started participating in the Afghan
jehad. He was amongst the first Arabs to have responded to the
call of the Afghan Mujahideen for foreign volunteers and was
instrumental in persuading many other Arabs to join the jehad. He
joined the jehad even before bin Laden, the late Sheikh Abdullah Azzam
and Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman, the Egyptian cleric now in jail in the US.
Sheikh Taseer is also credited with persuading Sheikh Abdullah Azzam to
resign his job as a lecturer in the Islamabad Islamic University and
join the jehad. Azzam shifted to Peshawar and built up a vast
network to help the Afghan refugees and arrange for the training of the
Arab mercenaries and their subsequent induction into the jehad.
* Dr.Ayman al-Zawahiri, of Egypt's Al Jihad, whose
grandfather, Mr.Abdul Wahab, used to be Egypt's Ambassador to
Pakistan. The bespectacled al-Zawahiri and his family have been
living in Afghanistan for the last 18 years.
* Two sons of Sheikh Omar---Mohammad,29, and Abu Asim.
Their real names are not known.
* Abu Yasir Rifai Ahmed Taha (real name not known),
another Egyptian.
* Shawki al-Islambouli, brother of Khalid Islambouli,
who killed President Anwar Sadat. His presence is rumoured about,
but not confirmed.
Bin Laden's own organisation in Afghanistan is dominated
by Saudis, Yemenis and Egyptians, with a small number of Algerians,
Tunisians, Libyans, Syrians, Jordanians, Palestinians and Iraqis.
The organisation, which bin Laden heads, is called Al Qaeda (the Base or
the Centre) and its military wing the 055 Brigade. The Brigade has a
strength of about 300, all Arabs of the Afghan war vintage. Bin
Laden's International Islamic Front consists of the following
organisations:
* The Al Qaeda.
* The Jamatul Jihad of Egypt led by Dr.al-Zawahiri.
* Another Egyptian group led by Abu Asim.
* A third Egyptian group led by al-Islambouli.
(unconfirmed)
* The Harkat-ul-Mujahideen of Pakistan.
* The Lashkar-e- Toiba of Pakistan.
* The Sipah-e-Sahaba of Pakistan, an extremist Sunni
organisation, which has been campaigning for the proclamation of
Pakistan as a Sunni State
* The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, which is believed to
be another name for the Al Qaeda. This is not confirmed.
Hence, it is shown as a separate organisation
* The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, led by Jumma
Namangani.
* The Hizbe Islami Turkistan, also led by Namangani.
* The Abu Sayyaf group of the Southern Philippines.
* An organisation (name not known) of the Uighurs of
Xinjiang in China.
* The Taliban.
All these organisations have their own separate
objectives. The Al Qaeda fights for the overthrow of the Saudi
monarchy and for the withdrawal of the US and British troops from Saudi
Arabia. The Egyptian groups want Islamic rule in their
country. The HUM and the LET want the merger of J & K with
Pakistan and, subsequently, the "liberation" of the Muslims in
other parts of India. The Sipah-e-Sahaba wants a Sunni State in
Pakistan and the declaration of the Shias as non-Muslims. The Uzbek
group wants an Islamic State and the Turkistan group wants an Islamic
Federation of all Central Asian Republics and Xinjiang. The Uighurs
want independence.
The members of the Front help each other in their
operations and look upon the US and Israel as their common enemies.
The proposed global counter-offensive against
International Islamic Terrorism has to recognise the following ground
realities:
* It will not be a one-shot war of limited duration over
after a few spectacular air strikes and commando actions. The
International Islamic Front has its presence in at least 20
countries. Only about 10 per cent of its hard core is in
Afghanistan. The rest are spread all over the world. They
would, therefore, be in a position to retaliate in the most unexpected
places in the most unpredictable manner.
* Those who join the counter-offensive should show
grit and consistency in carrying it through till final victory instead
of developing cold feet when faced with huge casualties and
infrastructure damage in their respective countries at the hands of the
terrorists.
* Any unfortunate perception amongst the Muslims of
the world that the counter-offensive is anti-Islam and not anti
international Islamic terrorism would be counter-productive.
Any counter-offensive plan should have the following
components:
* A Community of the intelligence agencies of the
countries joining this counter-offensive for joint intelligence
collection, sharing, analysis and operations.
* Mutual co-operation and assistance in strengthening
the physical security of vital/sensitive infrastructure, air travel etc.
* Political, economic and diplomatic isolation of
Pakistan, the Taliban Government and any other country assisting
international Islamic terrorism, for whatever reason.
* Carefully worked out and precisely-targeted deniable
covert actions against the terrorist groups and their leaders. One
should avoid spectacular overt actions against them, which would be
counter-productive. Public pressure for spectacular reprisals
should be resisted.
In the 1950s and the 1960s, when a large number of
democracies in the Western as well as the non-aligned worlds were faced
with armed Communist insurgencies sponsored by Moscow and Beijing, all the
affected countries fought this menace jointly through a mix of overt and
convert actions in a discreet, non-spectacular manner. That is the
model to be emulated after updating it, where necessary.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and , presently, Director, institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com
)
