THE OMENS FROM PAKISTAN
by B.Raman
Gen. Pervez Musharraf is the creator and the creation of
Osama bin Laden. At the instance of the US, he turned bin Laden, a
civil engineer, into a formidable commando in the 1980s. A happy
Zia-ul-Haq sent him up the Army ladder. But for bin Laden's exploits
in the Afghan war, Musharraf might not have reached the top.
He is also the creator and the creation of the Taliban.
At the instance of the US and on the orders of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, the
then Prime Minister, and Maj.Gen.(retd) Nasirullah Babar, her Interior
Minister, he and Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Deputy Director-General of
the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), created the Taliban in 1994--95 and
helped it overrun 90 per cent of Afghanistan. The reward: the Chief
of the Army Staff (COAS) post in October 1998, superseding two Lt. Gens
more capable than him.
The US was interested in the Taliban as a possible
operational asset against Iran and as the facilitator of oil and gas
pipelines from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan planned by
UNOCAL, an American company, with high political contacts in Washington
DC. Dr.Henry Kissinger was reportedly the political consultant of
the UNOCAL.
Speaking at a reception in honour of President
Saparmurat Niyazov of Turkmenistan hosted by UNOCAL at New York on October
21,1995, Dr.Kissinger praised Mrs.Bhutto for her "imaginative and
courageous decision" to help the UNOCAL (by creating the Taliban, of
course).
Within three years, the Taliban proved an
embarrassment. Its treatment of women and its massacre of the Shias
of Afghanistan shocked the world. UNOCAL withdrew from the project.
Bin Laden, the legendary US ally of the 1980s, became a
dreaded terrorist of the 1990s and a privileged guest of the Taliban.
The two converted Afghanistan into what a State Department report on the
Patterns of Global Terrorism called the new epicentre of international
terrorism.
The Day of Infamy on September 11 was the inevitable
result. The ally and the tool of yesterday have become for the US a
dreaded menace to be destroyed to avenge September 11.
Gen. Musharraf, who co-operated with the US in the
creation of bin Laden and the Taliban in the supreme national interest, is
today collaborating with the US in destroying them, again in the supreme
national interest, a favourite expression of his.
Willingly? No. At the point of the gun pressed
against his head by the US.
Ever since the General agreed to do the USA's bidding,
all his sins of commission and omission have been forgotten.
Lollipops are already on the way-- promised removal of the post-Chagai
sanctions.
Mr. Bush's strategic preoccupations have changed from
the Missile Defence and China to the "war" to eradicate
international terrorism personified by bin Laden and the Taliban To
re-furbish his tarnished image, he has to satisfy the clamour for blood
from the American public. This is a war, which cannot be fought
without Pakistan. The General has, naturally, become the toast of
Washington DC.
He should have been a happy man, but he hardly looked it
during his telecast to the nation on September 19. He had a
woe-beholden look. Not without reason.
He is haunted by reports of the gathering anger of the
Mullas of various hues and cries, madrasa students, the tribals of the
North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally-Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA), the Afghan returness in his Army, who had fought shoulder to
shoulder with the Taliban, and, most ominously, the Army of Islam.
Under Zia, Musharraf and Aziz created the Army of Islam
to fight the Soviet troops in Afghanistan and diverted it to Jammu &
Kashmir in 1992 after the collapse of the Najibullah Government in
Kabul. Today, it consists of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Al Badr. The
first two are members of bin Laden's International Islamic Front For Jehad
Against the US and Israel.
Today, their anger is against the US; tomorrow it could
turn against Musharraf. The General dreads nothing more than the
danger of being denounced by these elements as an anti-Muslim quisling.
He is keeping his fingers crossed hoping that the anger
would pass.
India has reasons to be concerned over the rumblings
from the mosques, the madrasas and the tribal areas in Pakistan.
Whichever way the situation turns, it cannot but have a negative impact on
India.
If the General overcomes the opposition and carries his
co-operation with the US to a successful conclusion, a grateful Washington
DC could be more attentive than in recent years to Pakistan's military
requirements and more understanding of its case on J & K. Pakistan
would have a say in determining what next after the Taliban in
Afghanistan. It would keep India out.
India would find that the real US interest was not in
keeping the world safe from terrorism, but in keeping the US safe from
terrorism. It would be an illusion for India to think that the USA's
"war" against terrorism would be against the Pakistani jehadis
in J & K too.
If Musharraf fails and the religious elements manage to
capture power, with the help of the fundamentalist elements in the Army,
the process of the Talibanisation of Pakistan, which till now is viewed
only as a distant possibility, might be hastened. India and the
world would be confronted with two Talibans and, God knows, how many more
bin Ladens.
The developing situation in Pakistan has to be closely
monitored by India's national security managers.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com
).
